Playoff odds
Who's making a run at the title.
We play out the rest of the 2026 season — every remaining game, then the full bracket — 50,000 times over, and count how often each team lands in the playoffs, reaches the Finals, and wins it all. Probabilities, not predictions.
The odds, team by team
Each column is a team's chance to reach that round. Sorted by title odds; the dashed line marks the 8-team playoff cut. As of September 30, 2026.
| # | Team | Rec | Playoffs | Semis | Finals | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Golden State Valkyries | 33-12 | 100% | 69% | 41% | 25% |
| 2 | Atlanta Dream | 31-14 | 100% | 68% | 40% | 24% |
| 3 | Minnesota Lynx | 33-13 | 100% | 62% | 33% | 16% |
| 4 | Las Vegas Aces | 32-15 | 100% | 59% | 30% | 14% |
| 5 | Indiana Fever | 29-17 | 100% | 44% | 20% | 9% |
| 6 | New York Liberty | 29-18 | 100% | 39% | 17% | 7% |
| 7 | Dallas Wings | 27-18 | 100% | 31% | 11% | 3% |
| 8 | Washington Mystics | 28-17 | 100% | 28% | 8% | 2% |
| 9 | Phoenix Mercury | 16-28 | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | Los Angeles Sparks | 16-28 | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | Portland Fire | 17-27 | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | Chicago Sky | 16-28 | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | Seattle Storm | 8-36 | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun | 11-33 | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | Toronto Tempo | 11-33 | — | — | — | — |
If the playoffs started today
Seeds 1–8 by current record (ties broken by net rating). Each first-round matchup shows the higher seed's chance to win the best-of-three series. Later rounds depend on who advances.
The model freezes each team's strength at today — it doesn't forecast future injuries, trades, or rest. Read it as "if the season played out from here at current form." Seeding ties use net rating as a v1 stand-in for the league's full tiebreaker order. These are model probabilities, not predictions.
2026 season · 7 games remaining · updated September 30, 2026