Track record

How the model is doing this season.

Every 2026 game the model called, graded against what actually happened. Each pick is made walk-forward — trained only on games that finished earlier, then scored cold. The list grows as games finish; numbers update nightly.

145-74 Picked right 66% of 219 games

0.634 Log-loss lower is better · coin flip = 0.693

10.2 Margin error avg pts off the final margin

17.0 Total error avg pts off the combined total

It's a young season and a small sample — one cold week swings these. The point isn't the win-loss line, it's whether the win probabilities stay honest, which is what the curve below tracks. For the full multi-season backtest, see the methodology.

Are the probabilities honest?

Group every 2026 pick by the win chance it stated, then check how often those teams actually won. On the line means the stated chance was right.

Each dot is a bucket of games grouped by predicted win chance. Dots on the diagonal mean the stated win chance matched what actually happened; dot size reflects how many games landed in that bucket.

Every game, graded

219 games — scroll for the full season.

Date	Matchup	Model's pick	Final	Result
Aug 1	LV @ CHI	LV 63%	83–84	✗
Aug 1	NY @ PHX	NY 55%	94–92	✓
Jul 31	SEA @ ATL	ATL 72%	89–98	✓
Jul 31	DAL @ WSH	DAL 56%	75–81	✗
Jul 31	IND @ POR	IND 68%	112–98	✓
Jul 30	CONN @ CHI	CHI 62%	88–94	✓
Jul 30	NY @ LV	LV 60%	99–104	✓
Jul 30	MIN @ TOR	MIN 74%	104–72	✓
Jul 29	GS @ PHX	GS 61%	89–91	✗
Jul 29	ATL @ DAL	ATL 51%	82–81	✓
Jul 28	NY @ LA	NY 60%	113–109	✓
Jul 28	POR @ LV	LV 74%	83–98	✓
Jul 28	CONN @ WSH	WSH 63%	84–92	✓
Jul 28	TOR @ MIN	MIN 82%	93–100	✓
Jul 28	IND @ SEA	IND 65%	105–95	✓
Jul 25	SPO @ COOP	COOP 55%	129–122	✗
Jul 22	LV @ WSH	LV 62%	99–100	✗
Jul 22	MIN @ SEA	MIN 71%	86–76	✓
Jul 22	CHI @ NY	NY 68%	94–95	✓
Jul 22	PHX @ LA	PHX 51%	86–82	✓
Jul 22	CONN @ IND	IND 77%	88–123	✓
Jul 22	DAL @ POR	DAL 61%	101–97	✓
Jul 20	MIN @ SEA	MIN 71%	105–102	✓
Jul 20	WSH @ GS	GS 75%	90–82	✗
Jul 20	NY @ DAL	DAL 55%	99–98	✗
Jul 20	LV @ TOR	LV 66%	109–83	✓
Jul 19	CONN @ PHX	PHX 63%	63–72	✓
Jul 19	LA @ DAL	DAL 69%	82–90	✓
Jul 19	CHI @ ATL	ATL 73%	91–93	✓
Jul 18	WSH @ GS	GS 75%	69–74	✓
Jul 18	POR @ MIN	MIN 81%	93–101	✓
Jul 18	NY @ IND	IND 57%	88–108	✓
Jul 17	SEA @ IND	IND 72%	107–110	✓
Jul 17	ATL @ TOR	ATL 65%	111–92	✓
Jul 17	CONN @ PHX	PHX 67%	96–83	✗
Jul 17	LA @ CHI	CHI 55%	82–96	✓
Jul 16	POR @ WSH	WSH 63%	75–56	✗
Jul 15	SEA @ CHI	CHI 55%	90–95	✓
Jul 15	LA @ MIN	MIN 80%	87–96	✓
Jul 15	GS @ IND	IND 53%	88–75	✗
Jul 14	POR @ CONN	CONN 54%	87–90	✓
Jul 14	WSH @ TOR	TOR 56%	79–62	✗
Jul 13	PHX @ MIN	MIN 77%	100–104	✓
Jul 13	LA @ ATL	ATL 74%	92–101	✓
Jul 12	NY @ TOR	NY 59%	91–93	✗
Jul 12	SEA @ WSH	WSH 57%	79–84	✓
Jul 12	IND @ LV	LV 61%	109–75	✗
Jul 12	CHI @ DAL	DAL 72%	91–96	✓
Jul 11	NY @ MIN	MIN 68%	85–90	✓
Jul 11	POR @ ATL	ATL 81%	102–92	✗
Jul 11	PHX @ LV	LV 65%	58–106	✓
Jul 10	GS @ CONN	GS 71%	79–64	✓
Jul 10	DAL @ TOR	DAL 56%	108–95	✓
Jul 10	CHI @ LA	LA 55%	87–102	✓
Jul 9	SEA @ ATL	ATL 75%	78–89	✓
Jul 9	LV @ POR	LV 68%	88–80	✓
Jul 9	IND @ PHX	IND 51%	92–89	✓
Jul 8	IND @ LA	IND 64%	92–106	✗
Jul 8	MIN @ CONN	MIN 77%	86–80	✓
Jul 8	GS @ TOR	GS 62%	83–75	✓
Jul 7	DAL @ NY	NY 61%	88–77	✗
Jul 7	CHI @ PHX	PHX 68%	77–66	✗
Jul 6	SEA @ LA	LA 58%	82–64	✗
Jul 6	CONN @ MIN	MIN 89%	90–89	✗
Jul 6	GS @ WSH	GS 60%	62–49	✓
Jul 5	DAL @ TOR	TOR 50%	89–76	✓
Jul 5	IND @ LV	LV 62%	84–68	✗
Jul 4	POR @ SEA	SEA 67%	77–72	✗
Jul 4	GS @ ATL	ATL 61%	88–83	✗
Jul 3	MIN @ NY	MIN 57%	86–99	✗
Jul 3	CHI @ LV	LV 78%	90–98	✓
Jul 2	ATL @ WSH	ATL 63%	76–81	✗
Jul 2	DAL @ CONN	DAL 63%	86–83	✓
Jul 2	SEA @ PHX	PHX 65%	67–90	✓
Jun 30	LV @ NY	NY 53%	85–93	✓
Jun 28	MIN @ DAL	MIN 61%	85–77	✓
Jun 28	POR @ WSH	WSH 69%	123–124	✓
Jun 28	NY @ GS	GS 60%	67–76	✓
Jun 28	LV @ CHI	LV 63%	107–99	✓
Jun 27	LA @ IND	IND 70%	87–111	✓
Jun 27	PHX @ TOR	TOR 55%	89–80	✗
Jun 27	ATL @ SEA	ATL 67%	90–105	✗
Jun 26	POR @ CHI	CHI 60%	94–124	✓
Jun 26	ATL @ GS	GS 51%	75–78	✓
Jun 26	WSH @ CONN	WSH 56%	57–68	✗
Jun 25	DAL @ LV	LV 61%	84–99	✓
Jun 25	LA @ TOR	TOR 55%	97–125	✓
Jun 25	NY @ SEA	NY 64%	88–99	✗
Jun 24	PHX @ IND	IND 63%	111–109	✗
Jun 24	MIN @ WSH	MIN 74%	78–76	✓
Jun 24	ATL @ GS	ATL 53%	66–77	✗
Jun 24	POR @ CHI	CHI 53%	78–101	✓
Jun 23	NY @ LV	LV 60%	87–76	✗
Jun 22	DAL @ SEA	DAL 61%	112–110	✓
Jun 22	PHX @ IND	IND 62%	77–86	✓
Jun 22	TOR @ ATL	ATL 79%	87–94	✓
Jun 22	CHI @ CONN	CHI 54%	63–92	✗
Jun 21	WSH @ MIN	MIN 85%	84–79	✗
Jun 21	GS @ LV	LV 53%	73–92	✓
Jun 21	NY @ LA	NY 59%	97–98	✗
Jun 20	IND @ ATL	ATL 63%	96–113	✓
Jun 20	CHI @ DAL	DAL 73%	92–93	✓
Jun 20	SEA @ PHX	PHX 62%	73–93	✓
Jun 19	TOR @ CONN	TOR 58%	101–97	✓
Jun 19	MIN @ GS	MIN 59%	81–75	✓
Jun 19	WSH @ NY	NY 73%	86–83	✗
Jun 18	ATL @ IND	ATL 54%	108–101	✓
Jun 17	WSH @ CONN	WSH 55%	88–81	✓
Jun 17	NY @ CHI	NY 68%	96–95	✓
Jun 17	MIN @ LA	MIN 75%	99–83	✓
Jun 17	DAL @ GS	GS 59%	80–91	✓
Jun 17	LV @ PHX	LV 55%	86–76	✓
Jun 17	SEA @ POR	POR 51%	89–94	✓
Jun 16	TOR @ IND	IND 67%	91–113	✓
Jun 15	LA @ GS	GS 67%	58–78	✓
Jun 15	POR @ MIN	MIN 83%	74–107	✓
Jun 15	LV @ DAL	LV 55%	66–96	✗
Jun 14	WSH @ NY	NY 71%	64–86	✓
Jun 14	ATL @ TOR	ATL 62%	102–77	✓
Jun 13	MIN @ LV	MIN 58%	97–100	✗
Jun 13	IND @ CONN	IND 72%	85–75	✓
Jun 13	LA @ PHX	PHX 59%	111–102	✗
Jun 13	DAL @ POR	DAL 61%	83–84	✗
Jun 12	TOR @ WSH	TOR 54%	85–86	✗
Jun 12	GS @ SEA	GS 65%	76–72	✓
Jun 11	LV @ POR	LV 66%	105–89	✓
Jun 11	CHI @ IND	IND 73%	106–114	✓
Jun 11	NY @ ATL	ATL 63%	104–90	✗
Jun 11	PHX @ DAL	DAL 56%	70–85	✓
Jun 10	CONN @ TOR	TOR 74%	102–106	✓
Jun 10	LA @ SEA	SEA 51%	88–83	✗
Jun 9	DAL @ MIN	MIN 72%	76–100	✓
Jun 9	PHX @ GS	GS 62%	81–87	✓
Jun 9	ATL @ CHI	ATL 74%	82–75	✓
Jun 8	SEA @ LV	LV 72%	91–101	✓
Jun 8	IND @ WSH	IND 62%	78–76	✓
Jun 8	NY @ CONN	NY 73%	89–80	✓
Jun 7	POR @ LA	LA 53%	72–89	✓
Jun 7	CHI @ TOR	TOR 62%	68–85	✓
Jun 6	IND @ NY	NY 51%	75–83	✓
Jun 6	SEA @ MIN	MIN 80%	68–88	✓
Jun 6	GS @ LV	LV 52%	79–84	✓
Jun 6	WSH @ ATL	ATL 71%	77–109	✓
Jun 5	CONN @ CHI	CHI 61%	80–85	✓
Jun 5	PHX @ POR	PHX 54%	78–72	✓
Jun 5	DAL @ LA	DAL 57%	104–96	✓
Jun 4	GS @ MIN	MIN 64%	84–87	✓
Jun 4	ATL @ IND	ATL 56%	71–83	✗
Jun 3	TOR @ NY	NY 59%	82–97	✓
Jun 3	PHX @ SEA	PHX 55%	72–68	✓
Jun 2	CONN @ ATL	ATL 83%	75–91	✓
Jun 2	CHI @ WSH	WSH 53%	72–90	✓
Jun 2	LV @ LA	LV 63%	79–69	✓
Jun 2	POR @ GS	GS 62%	77–95	✓
Jun 1	SEA @ DAL	DAL 58%	56–79	✓
Jun 1	MIN @ PHX	MIN 64%	111–77	✓
May 31	LV @ GS	GS 54%	91–81	✗
May 30	SEA @ TOR	SEA 52%	72–93	✗
May 30	LA @ CONN	LA 66%	81–84	✗
May 30	IND @ POR	IND 65%	84–100	✗
May 29	PHX @ NY	NY 53%	68–75	✓
May 29	LA @ WSH	LA 51%	92–87	✓
May 29	ATL @ POR	ATL 65%	86–66	✓
May 29	MIN @ CHI	MIN 75%	79–58	✓
May 28	LV @ DAL	LV 59%	87–95	✗
May 28	IND @ GS	GS 52%	88–90	✓
May 27	CONN @ POR	POR 66%	61–71	✓
May 27	TOR @ CHI	TOR 52%	111–104	✓
May 27	WSH @ SEA	SEA 62%	78–64	✗
May 27	PHX @ NY	PHX 50%	74–84	✗
May 27	ATL @ MIN	MIN 53%	81–96	✓
May 25	POR @ NY	NY 63%	81–74	✗
May 25	CONN @ GS	GS 76%	70–97	✓
May 24	WSH @ SEA	SEA 60%	85–97	✓
May 24	DAL @ NY	NY 62%	91–76	✗
May 24	PHX @ ATL	ATL 61%	80–82	✓
May 23	MIN @ CHI	MIN 73%	85–75	✓
May 23	LA @ LV	LV 70%	101–95	✗
May 23	POR @ TOR	TOR 66%	99–80	✗
May 22	CONN @ SEA	SEA 67%	59–77	✓
May 22	GS @ IND	GS 50%	82–90	✗
May 22	DAL @ ATL	ATL 67%	69–86	✓
May 21	LA @ PHX	PHX 67%	97–88	✗
May 21	TOR @ MIN	MIN 60%	72–100	✓
May 21	GS @ NY	NY 57%	87–70	✗
May 20	CONN @ SEA	SEA 69%	80–78	✗
May 20	DAL @ CHI	DAL 52%	99–89	✓
May 20	POR @ IND	IND 68%	73–90	✓
May 19	TOR @ PHX	PHX 58%	98–90	✗
May 18	WSH @ DAL	WSH 50%	69–92	✗
May 18	CONN @ POR	POR 61%	82–83	✓
May 17	TOR @ LA	TOR 56%	106–96	✓
May 17	CHI @ MIN	MIN 77%	86–79	✗
May 17	LV @ ATL	ATL 54%	85–84	✗
May 17	SEA @ IND	IND 58%	78–89	✓
May 15	LV @ CONN	LV 76%	101–94	✓
May 15	WSH @ IND	IND 64%	104–102	✗
May 15	TOR @ LA	TOR 59%	95–99	✗
May 15	CHI @ PHX	PHX 70%	83–91	✓
May 14	NY @ POR	NY 61%	100–82	✓
May 14	MIN @ DAL	MIN 71%	90–86	✓
May 13	SEA @ TOR	SEA 51%	73–86	✗
May 13	LV @ CONN	LV 71%	98–69	✓
May 13	CHI @ GS	GS 74%	69–63	✗
May 13	IND @ LA	IND 59%	87–78	✓
May 12	NY @ POR	NY 66%	96–98	✗
May 12	MIN @ PHX	MIN 54%	88–84	✓
May 12	ATL @ DAL	ATL 68%	77–72	✓
May 10	SEA @ CONN	SEA 63%	89–82	✓
May 10	NY @ WSH	NY 63%	98–93	✓
May 10	LV @ LA	LV 56%	105–78	✓
May 10	PHX @ GS	PHX 51%	79–95	✗
May 9	CHI @ POR	POR 72%	98–83	✗
May 9	ATL @ MIN	MIN 59%	91–90	✗
May 9	PHX @ LV	LV 61%	99–66	✗
May 9	DAL @ IND	IND 71%	107–104	✗
May 8	WSH @ TOR	TOR 69%	68–65	✗
May 8	CONN @ NY	NY 80%	75–106	✓
May 8	GS @ SEA	SEA 58%	91–80	✗

2026 season · 219 games graded · updated August 7, 2026