Track record
How the model is doing this season.
Every 2026 game the model called, graded against what actually happened. Each pick is made walk-forward — trained only on games that finished earlier, then scored cold. The list grows as games finish; numbers update nightly.
66-39 Picked right 63% of 105 games
0.639 Log-loss lower is better · coin flip = 0.693
10.8 Margin error avg pts off the final margin
15.7 Total error avg pts off the combined total
It's a young season and a small sample — one cold week swings these. The point isn't the win-loss line, it's whether the win probabilities stay honest, which is what the curve below tracks. For the full multi-season backtest, see the methodology.
Are the probabilities honest?
Group every 2026 pick by the win chance it stated, then check how often those teams actually won. On the line means the stated chance was right.
Every game, graded
105 games — scroll for the full season.
| Date | Matchup | Model's pick | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15 | LA @ GS | GS 67% | 58–78 | ✓ |
| Jun 15 | LV @ DAL | LV 55% | 66–96 | ✗ |
| Jun 15 | POR @ MIN | MIN 83% | 74–107 | ✓ |
| Jun 14 | ATL @ TOR | ATL 62% | 102–77 | ✓ |
| Jun 14 | WSH @ NY | NY 71% | 64–86 | ✓ |
| Jun 13 | LA @ PHX | PHX 59% | 111–102 | ✗ |
| Jun 13 | DAL @ POR | DAL 61% | 83–84 | ✗ |
| Jun 13 | MIN @ LV | MIN 58% | 97–100 | ✗ |
| Jun 13 | IND @ CONN | IND 72% | 85–75 | ✓ |
| Jun 12 | TOR @ WSH | TOR 54% | 85–86 | ✗ |
| Jun 12 | GS @ SEA | GS 65% | 76–72 | ✓ |
| Jun 11 | NY @ ATL | ATL 63% | 104–90 | ✗ |
| Jun 11 | LV @ POR | LV 66% | 105–89 | ✓ |
| Jun 11 | CHI @ IND | IND 73% | 106–114 | ✓ |
| Jun 11 | PHX @ DAL | DAL 56% | 70–85 | ✓ |
| Jun 10 | CONN @ TOR | TOR 74% | 102–106 | ✓ |
| Jun 10 | LA @ SEA | SEA 51% | 88–83 | ✗ |
| Jun 9 | ATL @ CHI | ATL 74% | 82–75 | ✓ |
| Jun 9 | PHX @ GS | GS 62% | 81–87 | ✓ |
| Jun 9 | DAL @ MIN | MIN 72% | 76–100 | ✓ |
| Jun 8 | SEA @ LV | LV 72% | 91–101 | ✓ |
| Jun 8 | NY @ CONN | NY 73% | 89–80 | ✓ |
| Jun 8 | IND @ WSH | IND 62% | 78–76 | ✓ |
| Jun 7 | POR @ LA | LA 53% | 72–89 | ✓ |
| Jun 7 | CHI @ TOR | TOR 62% | 68–85 | ✓ |
| Jun 6 | WSH @ ATL | ATL 71% | 77–109 | ✓ |
| Jun 6 | IND @ NY | NY 51% | 75–83 | ✓ |
| Jun 6 | GS @ LV | LV 52% | 79–84 | ✓ |
| Jun 6 | SEA @ MIN | MIN 80% | 68–88 | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | CONN @ CHI | CHI 61% | 80–85 | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | PHX @ POR | PHX 54% | 78–72 | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | DAL @ LA | DAL 57% | 104–96 | ✓ |
| Jun 4 | GS @ MIN | MIN 64% | 84–87 | ✓ |
| Jun 4 | ATL @ IND | ATL 56% | 71–83 | ✗ |
| Jun 3 | TOR @ NY | NY 59% | 82–97 | ✓ |
| Jun 3 | PHX @ SEA | PHX 55% | 72–68 | ✓ |
| Jun 2 | CONN @ ATL | ATL 83% | 75–91 | ✓ |
| Jun 2 | LV @ LA | LV 63% | 79–69 | ✓ |
| Jun 2 | CHI @ WSH | WSH 53% | 72–90 | ✓ |
| Jun 2 | POR @ GS | GS 62% | 77–95 | ✓ |
| Jun 1 | MIN @ PHX | MIN 64% | 111–77 | ✓ |
| Jun 1 | SEA @ DAL | DAL 58% | 56–79 | ✓ |
| May 31 | LV @ GS | GS 54% | 91–81 | ✗ |
| May 30 | LA @ CONN | LA 66% | 81–84 | ✗ |
| May 30 | IND @ POR | IND 65% | 84–100 | ✗ |
| May 30 | SEA @ TOR | SEA 52% | 72–93 | ✗ |
| May 29 | ATL @ POR | ATL 65% | 86–66 | ✓ |
| May 29 | PHX @ NY | NY 53% | 68–75 | ✓ |
| May 29 | LA @ WSH | LA 51% | 92–87 | ✓ |
| May 29 | MIN @ CHI | MIN 75% | 79–58 | ✓ |
| May 28 | LV @ DAL | LV 59% | 87–95 | ✗ |
| May 28 | IND @ GS | GS 52% | 88–90 | ✓ |
| May 27 | CONN @ POR | POR 66% | 61–71 | ✓ |
| May 27 | ATL @ MIN | MIN 53% | 81–96 | ✓ |
| May 27 | WSH @ SEA | SEA 62% | 78–64 | ✗ |
| May 27 | PHX @ NY | PHX 50% | 74–84 | ✗ |
| May 27 | TOR @ CHI | TOR 52% | 111–104 | ✓ |
| May 25 | CONN @ GS | GS 76% | 70–97 | ✓ |
| May 25 | POR @ NY | NY 63% | 81–74 | ✗ |
| May 24 | PHX @ ATL | ATL 61% | 80–82 | ✓ |
| May 24 | DAL @ NY | NY 62% | 91–76 | ✗ |
| May 24 | WSH @ SEA | SEA 60% | 85–97 | ✓ |
| May 23 | LA @ LV | LV 70% | 101–95 | ✗ |
| May 23 | POR @ TOR | TOR 66% | 99–80 | ✗ |
| May 23 | MIN @ CHI | MIN 73% | 85–75 | ✓ |
| May 22 | DAL @ ATL | ATL 67% | 69–86 | ✓ |
| May 22 | CONN @ SEA | SEA 67% | 59–77 | ✓ |
| May 22 | GS @ IND | GS 50% | 82–90 | ✗ |
| May 21 | LA @ PHX | PHX 67% | 97–88 | ✗ |
| May 21 | TOR @ MIN | MIN 60% | 72–100 | ✓ |
| May 21 | GS @ NY | NY 57% | 87–70 | ✗ |
| May 20 | POR @ IND | IND 68% | 73–90 | ✓ |
| May 20 | DAL @ CHI | DAL 52% | 99–89 | ✓ |
| May 20 | CONN @ SEA | SEA 69% | 80–78 | ✗ |
| May 19 | TOR @ PHX | PHX 58% | 98–90 | ✗ |
| May 18 | WSH @ DAL | WSH 50% | 69–92 | ✗ |
| May 18 | CONN @ POR | POR 61% | 82–83 | ✓ |
| May 17 | CHI @ MIN | MIN 77% | 86–79 | ✗ |
| May 17 | TOR @ LA | TOR 56% | 106–96 | ✓ |
| May 17 | LV @ ATL | ATL 54% | 85–84 | ✗ |
| May 17 | SEA @ IND | IND 58% | 78–89 | ✓ |
| May 15 | TOR @ LA | TOR 59% | 95–99 | ✗ |
| May 15 | LV @ CONN | LV 76% | 101–94 | ✓ |
| May 15 | WSH @ IND | IND 64% | 104–102 | ✗ |
| May 15 | CHI @ PHX | PHX 70% | 83–91 | ✓ |
| May 14 | MIN @ DAL | MIN 71% | 90–86 | ✓ |
| May 14 | NY @ POR | NY 61% | 100–82 | ✓ |
| May 13 | LV @ CONN | LV 71% | 98–69 | ✓ |
| May 13 | IND @ LA | IND 59% | 87–78 | ✓ |
| May 13 | CHI @ GS | GS 74% | 69–63 | ✗ |
| May 13 | SEA @ TOR | SEA 51% | 73–86 | ✗ |
| May 12 | NY @ POR | NY 66% | 96–98 | ✗ |
| May 12 | ATL @ DAL | ATL 68% | 77–72 | ✓ |
| May 12 | MIN @ PHX | MIN 54% | 88–84 | ✓ |
| May 10 | PHX @ GS | PHX 51% | 79–95 | ✗ |
| May 10 | LV @ LA | LV 56% | 105–78 | ✓ |
| May 10 | NY @ WSH | NY 63% | 98–93 | ✓ |
| May 10 | SEA @ CONN | SEA 63% | 89–82 | ✓ |
| May 9 | DAL @ IND | IND 71% | 107–104 | ✗ |
| May 9 | PHX @ LV | LV 61% | 99–66 | ✗ |
| May 9 | ATL @ MIN | MIN 59% | 91–90 | ✗ |
| May 9 | CHI @ POR | POR 72% | 98–83 | ✗ |
| May 8 | CONN @ NY | NY 80% | 75–106 | ✓ |
| May 8 | GS @ SEA | SEA 58% | 91–80 | ✗ |
| May 8 | WSH @ TOR | TOR 69% | 68–65 | ✗ |
2026 season · 105 games graded · updated June 16, 2026